No single move wins most often in rock paper scissors: each throw beats exactly one other throw and loses to exactly one, so against a truly random opponent rock, paper and scissors all win one third of the time. What changes the odds is people. Humans do not throw at random, and in the data I have, rock is the most common throw and scissors the least common, which makes paper the best default against an unknown human.
This page replaces several older articles on this site about "RPS statistics". One of them described a "new study" with precise percentages. I could not find that study anywhere, and I believe it never existed, so none of its numbers appear here. Everything below comes from either a published, peer-reviewed experiment or from games recorded on wrpsa.com, with the sample stated.
The short answer
| Question | Answer |
|---|---|
| Which throw is mathematically strongest? | None. Each wins 1/3, loses 1/3 and ties 1/3 against a random opponent. |
| Which throw do people use most? | Rock, in our data (36.2% of throws). |
| Which throw do people use least? | Scissors (28.2%). |
| Best opening throw against a stranger? | Paper, because rock is the most common opener. |
| Does any pattern persist after the first throw? | Yes. What people throw next depends heavily on whether they just won or lost. |
Why no throw wins by itself
Rock paper scissors is a balanced cycle. Rock crushes scissors, scissors cut paper, paper covers rock. If your opponent picks each option with probability one third, your choice does not matter: whatever you throw, you win 1/3, tie 1/3 and lose 1/3 of the time. That is why game theorists say the equilibrium strategy is to randomize evenly. I go through the math in detail in the math behind rock paper scissors and on our game theory page.
So any claim that "paper wins X% of all games" is really a claim about the players, not the game.
What real players actually throw
At WRPSA we record every throw made on wrpsa.com/play. Between 29 July and 27 September 2026 we logged 3,020 throws from 943 players. Most of those games were against the computer rather than another person, and many players played only a handful of rounds, so treat this as a snapshot of casual online play, not a lab result.
All throws (n = 3,020)
| Throw | Share |
|---|---|
| Rock | 36.2% |
| Paper | 35.6% |
| Scissors | 28.2% |
First throw of a game
| Throw | Share |
|---|---|
| Rock | 38.1% |
| Paper | 36.0% |
| Scissors | 25.9% |
Two things stand out. Scissors is clearly underused, both overall and as an opener. And rock is the most popular first throw. If you have to throw once against someone you know nothing about, paper wins against the most common opener and only loses to the least common one. That is a small edge, a few percentage points, but it is real.
What happens after a win or a loss
The more useful pattern is sequential. People react to the last result.
After a win, players in our data:
- repeated the same throw only 20.0% of the time,
- switched to the throw that beats their previous throw 42.3% of the time,
- switched to the remaining throw the rest of the time (about 37.7%).
After a loss, players:
- "upgraded" to the throw that beats their last throw 38.5% of the time,
- "downgraded" to the throw their last throw beats 34.0% of the time,
- stayed with the same throw 27.5% of the time.
Against a person who just won with rock, the least likely next throw is rock again, and the most likely is paper. So scissors is a reasonable answer.
The best-known academic study
The most cited experiment is by Wang Zhijian, Xu Bin and Zhou Haijun, published in Scientific Reports in 2014 as "Social cycling and conditional responses in the Rock-Paper-Scissors game". At Zhejiang University, 360 students played 300 rounds each in fixed groups of six, with small cash incentives.
Their headline finding was conditional behaviour: winners tended to stick with the throw that just won more often than chance would predict ("win-stay"), and losers tended to change their throw ("lose-shift"). MIT Technology Review covered the paper in 2014 under the title "How to Win at Rock-Paper-Scissors".
You will notice that our "after a win" numbers point the other way: our players rarely repeated a winning throw. I do not think that contradicts the study so much as reflects a different setting. Their students played long sessions against other students for money. Ours mostly played short sessions against a computer, where people often try to outsmart the machine by changing things up. Both datasets agree on the bigger point: human choices after a result are predictable, and the prediction depends on the context.
How to use this in a real game
- Opening throw against a stranger: paper.
- Watch whether your opponent stays or switches after they win. Most people have a habit, and two or three rounds will reveal it.
- After you lose, do not automatically throw the move that would have beaten their last throw. Many opponents expect exactly that.
- When you have no read at all, randomize. The even one-third mix cannot be exploited, which is the whole point of the equilibrium.
For the full playbook, see our strategy guide and the psychology of rock paper scissors.
FAQ
Is rock the most common throw?
In our sample of 3,020 throws, yes: 36.2% rock, 35.6% paper, 28.2% scissors. Rock's lead is larger on the first throw (38.1%).
Does paper win more often than the other throws?
Only because of how people play. Against a random opponent every throw wins exactly one third of the time. Against humans who favour rock and neglect scissors, paper has a slight edge.
Is there a throw that always wins?
No. Any fixed throw loses every time to an opponent who notices it.
Where can I test these patterns myself?
You can play free online against the computer or other people and see how your own habits compare.