You cannot win Rock Paper Scissors every time, and no method guarantees it: against someone throwing truly at random, every strategy wins one third, loses one third and ties one third. What you can do is exploit the fact that people are not random. Real players open with rock more than anything else, rarely repeat a throw after winning, and shift in predictable ways after losing, and those habits give you a small, real edge.
What the research says
The best-known study is Wang, Xu and Zhou (2014), published in Scientific Reports. Researchers at Zhejiang University had 360 students play in groups of six for 300 rounds each. Overall, choices came out close to one third each, as game theory predicts. But round by round, players followed a conditional pattern: winners tended to repeat their winning throw ("win-stay"), and losers tended to switch ("lose-shift").
Keep in mind these are tendencies across a population, not rules any single person follows.
What our own data shows
At WRPSA we logged 3,020 throws from 943 players between 29 July and 27 September 2026, mostly people playing against the computer on our site. It is a modest sample from one setting, so treat it as a hint, not a law.
| Situation | Rock | Paper | Scissors |
|---|---|---|---|
| All throws | 36.2% | 35.6% | 28.2% |
| First throw of a match | 38.1% | 36.0% | 25.9% |
After a win, our players repeated the same throw only 20.0% of the time and moved to the throw that beats their last one 42.3% of the time. After a loss, 38.5% moved up to the throw that beats their previous one, 34.0% moved down, and 27.5% stayed. Note that our players did not show the win-stay habit from the 2014 study; they did the opposite. That is exactly why you should read the person in front of you instead of trusting a single rule.
Practical strategies
1. Open with paper
Rock is the most common first throw in our data, and scissors is the least common. Paper beats rock and only loses to the rarest opener, so it is the sensible default for round one.
2. After you win, expect a change
Most of our players did not repeat after winning, and they most often moved to the throw that beats their own previous one. If they won with rock, look for paper next, and consider scissors to beat it. Track your opponent for a few rounds before trusting this.
3. After they lose, expect an "upgrade"
The largest group of losers in our data moved to the throw that beats what they just threw. If they lost with scissors, rock is likely next, so paper is your answer.
4. Watch for runs
In our data, repeats were uncommon after a win. If your opponent has already repeated a throw, ask whether they are the rare player who sticks, or whether a change is coming. A few rounds of history will usually tell you which kind of player you face.
5. Hide your own patterns
Everything above works against you too. If you notice yourself always upgrading after a loss, break it deliberately.
A short drill
- Play 30 rounds against a friend or the computer on /play.
- Write down each pair of throws.
- Count what your opponent did after wins and after losses.
- Play 30 more, betting on their most common response.
You will not win every round. The point is to see whether their habits are strong enough to move your win rate above one third. More ideas are on our strategy page, psychology page and the 27 gambits.
FAQ
Can you win Rock Paper Scissors every time?
No. Any guaranteed method would require seeing the throw early, which is cheating. Pattern reading improves your odds; it does not guarantee a win.
What is the best first move?
Paper, because rock is the most common opening throw and scissors the least common.
What does game theory say?
That throwing each option one third of the time at random cannot be exploited. See our game theory page.